Expert opinions on China

Pursuing AI dominance will provoke intense sabotage efforts by rivals. The US and China have clear incentives to race each other to greater AI capabilities; sole access to a sufficiently powerful AI system could give the country that developed it geo...

Plan A is the alternative. Delay superintelligence to 2040. Make all AI research public. Let dozens of companies in dozens of countries catch up to the frontier. And enter, deliberately and with eyes open, a regime of mutually assured compute destruc...

A doctrine whose trigger mechanism can be this thoroughly disputed cannot function as a deterrent. Deterrence requires certainty. MAD worked because both sides knew, with something close to certainty, what a launch would produce. MACD, as currently s...

This means that in 2026-2027 we could end up in one of two starkly different worlds. In the US, multiple companies will definitely have the required millions of chips (at the cost of tens of billions of dollars). The question is whether China will al...

China consistently opposes any practice of overstretching the concept of national security and abusing export controls.