Expert opinions on AI

Contrary to what some may fear, AI isn't eliminating jobs. It’s segmenting and reshaping them in fundamental ways that leaders and employees need to understand.

We appear to be approaching the most significant reorganization of work in generations. This transition could create new opportunities, but it could also come with some costs.

There will be some new jobs, but without the right policies there will be far fewer than exist today.

The report doesn’t endorse a single “AI tax.” Instead, it lays out three broad ways Congress could use the tax code as AI creates enormous new wealth while potentially displacing workers and imposing new costs on communities: Make sure the economic g...

“Out of six popular policy fixes, we find that five of them fail,” says Tsoukalas. “In our model, only a tax on automation itself actually changes the calculus. Most of the policy debate assumes displacement will happen and focuses on picking up the ...

In the coming years, AI — and ultimately artificial general intelligence (AGI) — has the potential to drive one of the greatest transformations in history. We’re a team of scientists, engineers, ethicists and more, working to build the next generatio...

This is going to be the most productive decade in the history of our species. But in order to truly reap the benefits of AI, we need to learn how to contain it. Paradoxically, part of that will mean collectively saying no to certain forms of progress...

Many leading companies are engaged in a single-minded pursuit of artificial general intelligence (AGI). [...] Rather than racing to replace people, we should build AI tools that amplify human expertise and expand opportunity.

Middle powers can successfully advance benefit-sharing agreements by leveraging the strategic interests of great powers, especially if they focus on gaining access to non-zero-sum resources, such as training data and software needed to deploy advance...

The answer isn't convergence for its own sake. We can push too hard on one thing. But if you have one standard, you could risk a lowest common denominator outcome that can cost us the innovation system as well and might have a risk on the national in...

ChatGPT is not good for learning. All I care about is the learning stuff -- and cognition goes down whenever we touch it. So maybe a good tool for adults, but not for kids.

Children have given us a clear diagnosis of the problem. They aren't asking us to block AI innovation, but it shouldn't be a case of cleaning up the mess after harm has happened either.

We all just want peace of mind that our kids will be okay growing up in this era of algorithms and AI. That’s why we need guardrails in place to keep up with ever-evolving technology like chatbots and make sure our kids’ safety, mental health, and we...

If AI development is expected to lead quickly to AGI and then ASI, competition could take on a zero-sum character.

Throwing more words and GPUs into the word-guessing program won't make it sentient. [...] one of our mares gives birth to a locomotive.

Once the machine can perform the new task as well as a person, there is no longer any reason to keep a human in the loop.

The uneven adoption of AI risks widening economic disparities—both within labour markets and between regions.

But each time humanity has come out with more people sharing greater prosperity, health, and freedom. We believe this will be true with AI as well, and the abundance of the future can be shared by everyone.

But each time humanity has come out with more people sharing greater prosperity, health, and freedom. We believe this will be true with AI as well, and the abundance of the future can be shared by everyone.

But each time humanity has come out with more people sharing greater prosperity, health, and freedom. We believe this will be true with AI as well, and the abundance of the future can be shared by everyone.

AI could make goods and services cheaper than ever, raising hopes for a new age of abundance where scarcity plays a smaller role in human life.

It is often suggested that the advent of powerful AI will create abundance and that it can thereby contribute to securing social harmony. This paper draws on Hirsch’s study of different kinds of limits to growth to show that this is false.

I think the default prediction you should have for that is what the AI system learns to do is, “I’m going to take opportunities to reward hack, seek reward as much as possible that would allow me to get a high score after a week” or something like th...

No one knows—it’s an open problem, but I will review some ideas and research directions.

A more fundamental fix would be to train the models not to cheat in the first place – but given this kind of behaviour was reported in frontier models more than a year ago, robustly aligning it away may not be easy.

I cannot say with certainty that AI will never be conscious or that people will not come to trust the machines in our future more than they trust other humans.

The question of whether artificial intelligence is or can ever be conscious remains unclear.

Being open to the possibility that LLMs are conscious is the same as being open to the possibility that Microsoft Word is conscious.

I argue that contemporary deep learning systems often can and do achieve such understanding.

AI systems, by contrast, do not understand meaning. They detect statistical regularities in large datasets and generate outputs that approximate meaningful responses without comprehension. AI does not know what something is or why it matters; it pred...

A common fear in AI safety is that human value is fragile -- that is, optimizing too heavily for an imperfect proxy to human values will lead to a catastrophic outcome.

I don’t think it will be doom and gloom in the next five years. But we have to put our effort into understanding vulnerabilities and mitigating the risks. Otherwise it will be too late.

I show how the argument from power-seeking rests on a strong version of a claim known as the instrumental convergence thesis. I explore leading defenses of the instrumental convergence thesis and argue that none establishes the thesis in a strong eno...

Devin's appointment gives us the operational and technical leadership to match the scale of what we're building, and the Frontier Security Institute extends our mission into territory that has never been more consequential. Frontier AI is now a natio...

We can’t just invest in software and hardware; we have to invest in sovereignty.

Europe should prioritize “code over concrete.”