Expert opinions on AI

I know there’s a lot of concern that many people have, including many smart people, that AI is going to make humans redundant and so on. I totally disagree with this point of view. And I think, in fact, AI is going to create a labor shortage.

the evidence on how AI is affecting the labor market today is inconclusive, and claims about harmful impacts on particular groups of workers are premature.

The financing for new models is coming from investors, and those investors are making a bet that the AI they're funding will be so good that employers can fire half their workers and replace them with AI, with the proceeds split between AI companies'...

This sentiment of renting AI from someone rather than owning it is a national security risk [...] You need to fully control it.

Governments are on track to spend more than $1 trillion by 2030 chasing a sovereign stack, the full range of hardware and capabilities necessary to deploy and operate AI infrastructure. [...] In an interdependent system, the question shifts from how ...

Suppose I say to a chatbot, I saw the Grand Canyon flying to Chicago. And the chatbot says, that can't be right. The Grand Canyon is much too big to fly to Chicago. And I say, no, no, no, it was me flying to Chicago. While I was flying to Chicago, I ...

Computational functionalism claims that executing certain computations is sufficient for consciousness, regardless of the physical mechanisms implementing those computations. This view neglects a compelling alternative: that subcomputational biologic...

A conscious being isn’t a word-guessing app that knows more words and has more computing power to guess with.

AI has gone from "dumber than a child" to "expert level" in a few years in many domains. The gap between "expert level" and "above top geniuses" is smaller, so we expect it to take less time. This has been a pattern in fields like chess and Go, where...

Throwing more words and GPUs into the word-guessing program won't make it sentient. [...] one of our mares gives birth to a locomotive.

And by the way, there's the existential threat that as AI becomes smarter than humans, it can [...] become independent and lead to catastrophic impacts.

So when people predict a high degree of existential risk from AGI, I don’t actually think “arguing back” on their chosen terms is the correct response. Radical agnosticism is the correct response, where all specific scenarios are pretty unlikely. Non...

These fears (or hopes) of a nascent superintelligence that will spontaneously arise if we just give enough computing power and training data to large language models are absurd on their face.

We need an international forum for discussion that establishes globally accepted standards for testing, provides expert and impartial analysis of capabilities and risks, and serves as a venue for cooperation among nations.

But the main regret I have with this talk is that I wish I had prepared a more for the section on a “CERN for AI.” The idea behind such a project is to pool many countries’ and companies’ resources into a single (possibly physically decentralized) ci...

Currently, so many needs for innovation are put under the label of AI that there will be no way to address them with a single organisation.

Our main focus is to build truly recursive, self-improving superintelligence at scale, which means that the entire process of ideation, implementation, and validation of research ideas would be automatic.

This is going to be the most productive decade in the history of our species. But in order to truly reap the benefits of AI, we need to learn how to contain it. Paradoxically, part of that will mean collectively saying no to certain forms of progress...

A better tech future moves from artificial general intelligence to augmented collective intelligence, where AI amplifies rather than replaces human agency.

I'm somebody that believes that there always must be a human involved in the kill chain, and that we should not be making decisions to take lives based on an AI algorithm. We need to be able to make those decisions as humans, and those are discussion...

Personal view: I admire @AnthropicAI sticking by their principles but disagree with the principle itself. Putin won't fight fair so we should have autonomous AI weapons for sure.

US export controls on frontier chips and SME to China have been a major contributor to the US’s overall lead in AI, and these policies need to be expanded, tightened, and coordinated with other likeminded states.

coerced or courted some countries to adopt export restrictions against China. [...] Such bullying acts seriously violate market principles and the international trade order

Failure, in their eyes, means being left behind while AI automates large swaths of white-collar work – especially coding jobs, which until now have been a veritable licence to print money – and falling into the ranks of the permanent poor.

the evidence on how AI is affecting the labor market today is inconclusive, and claims about harmful impacts on particular groups of workers are premature.

Unless AI's rise is accompanied by an edict that people can no longer pursue new companies or initiatives, then the technology can't be a subjugation machine without some accompanying rise in empowerment. [...] Unless you're brutally pessimistic abou...

Alignment is not solved but it increasingly looks solvable [...] Since then a lot has happened: pretraining continued improving and RL became a much bigger deal.

If it takes over that's what will happen. [...] We don't know how to do that. We don't even know if it's possible.

AI alignment is not something that works in theory but is difficult to put into practice. It's something that doesn't work in theory.

People under the age of 18 should not be able to interact with AI chatbots. These chatbots continue to put the lives and mental health of children at risk, and it is critical for Congress to act immediately.

Some kids are just too young to understand the difference between AI and a real person. [...] Remember, this is not a person... this is just something you download in the app store. It's not just our kids — these chatbots and the companies behind the...

The GUARD Act doesn’t give parents a choice—it simply blocks minors from AI companions altogether.

There is no upper limit on how intelligent AIs will get or on how good robots will get, and I believe the advances will not plateau before exceeding human levels. [...] AI capabilities will allow us to make far more goods and services with less labor...

The concept of superintelligence is built on a flawed premise. The idea is that once you have an intelligence that is as good or better than humans — in other words, AGI — then that intelligence can improve itself, leading to a runaway effect. This i...

When you open source a big model and give people the weights [...] You get people using that open source model and training it, refining it to do something bad like cyberattacks or making biological weapons because it's much easier to refine the mode...

there has to be full open source here. [...] if you're worried about AI-generated pathogens, [...] Let's do a Manhattan Project for biological defense.