Expert opinions on AI

We need to change from taxing human labour to taxing value added [...] Because of AI, we will all become so wealthy.

To date, BPC has not taken a position on whether AI should be taxed and does not endorse any particular option in this issue brief. [...] The code treats labor and capital differently: Employers owe payroll taxes on wages, while investments in equipm...

AI will most certainly change the labor market. But it has not yet changed the complementary relationship between workers and the tools that make them more productive. Taxing the machines is simply a softer version of the Luddite English textile work...

How computational agent theory leads to a solution of the technical alignment problem, something that requires a major rethinking of how we design AI systems.

I used to always think that, you know, alignment will just fall out. I no longer believe that. So I think this alignment thing may be a harder, different problem.

Fundamentally, we just do not know how to do alignment. If somebody came with a thousand-page document that explained exactly how to do everything, we couldn’t get a model to learn exactly that.

At the information-processing level one can make the argument that LLMs do something very similar to what humans do: They extract patterns from language, compare them to other patterns of that language, and assign meaning.

Yes—intelligence can probably be artificial. But artificial intelligence does not therefore have to possess an artificial version of the human mind. [...] What has not been established is that current AI possesses consciousness, subjective experience...

AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment. AI does not understand accountability, trust, culture, unwritten rules, ethical trade-offs or fairness, all of which shape reputational risk and ultimately drive revenue ...

If Dario's predictions had come true, we'd all be unemployed today. Chicago has news for him: Here, companies are doing real things. AI has actually led to more hiring, not job cuts. Amodei is wrong.

Yet the study cannot tell us whether AI displaces jobs. It measures employment growth inside adopting companies, while displacement can occur through layoffs, reduced hiring, fewer contracts or job losses at competitors.

In our national survey, 83% of U.S. adults expect AI to eliminate more jobs than it creates.

The AI Biosecurity Lab will be a major new global institution bringing together world-leading scientific expertise to keep the country safe.

But the main regret I have with this talk is that I wish I had prepared a more for the section on a “CERN for AI.” The idea behind such a project is to pool many countries’ and companies’ resources into a single (possibly physically decentralized) ci...

There are many conceivable versions of a “CERN for AI.” But the version that seems politically realistic (a new catch-up lab) probably would not do much for safety, while the versions that would materially improve safety (e.g., pause + merge of all c...

External evaluators should be embedded at AI companies, but they should not be restricted to AI safety researchers, and they should not be selected by the company being evaluated. Rather, they should represent communities across society, address a mu...

the bad news: Dario estimates that in 6 months AI will have the ability to take over the internet the worse news: Anthropic's current commitment to stopping this is... putting independent evaluators in desks in their office have a great day

They really become part of the company, which makes it difficult to criticize it because the staffers become almost your friends.

My belief is that today’s models are not conscious, or if they are, it’s a very strange form of it. [...] Maybe the substrate matters, but maybe it doesn’t, and maybe energy flowing through matter can do it. And then in that world, sure, you can imag...

“I would be surprised if current AI models develop consciousness,” he said, “but we can’t entirely rule it out.”

AIs are not conscious. They do not feel, experience, or suffer. They do not have innate preferences or underlying motivations. They are sequence completion engines, internally hollow, designed to follow instructions, and accomplish goals set by human...

Turns out, we were being unnecessarily pessimistic. Even though the planet is on fire, extreme temperatures will not be the ones to knock us out of the evolutionary game. (So much for our soggy paper straws.) Instead, we’ve decided to build something...

We have to change the way we talk about AI risk because for a very long time, it’s either existential and everything is going to die and the killer robots are coming, or it doesn’t really matter.

We do need to have some safeguards in place to make sure there are no unintended consequences, but, no, I do not think AI is going to imperil human existence.

Decisions involving the use of lethal force, the deprivation of human life, and the escalation of conflict must never be abdicated to autonomous algorithms. Meaningful human control and accountability remain the non-negotiable bedrock of internationa...

A broad consensus has emerged that, regardless of the system, humans must retain responsibility for decisions to use force.

The ICRC has called for legally binding rules that would: Prohibit those autonomous weapons that pose the greatest threat, namely: “Unpredictable” autonomous weapons, whose effects cannot be sufficiently understood, predicted and explained; and auton...

Senator Ricketts has championed legislation to strengthen AI innovation and development, protect America’s competitiveness against Communist China, and prioritize Americans’ safety and security. [...] Guidelines for User Age-verification and Responsi...

Sweeping bans of anything are hard to enact and enforce, but the risks of generative AI are too great to dismiss bold measures as unfeasible. [...] In the absence of a wholesale ban on all interactions between juveniles and relational AI, a default s...

We all just want peace of mind that our kids will be okay growing up in this era of algorithms and AI. That’s why we need guardrails in place to keep up with ever-evolving technology like chatbots and make sure our kids’ safety, mental health, and we...

There’s a common fear among people who work in Silicon Valley: snag one of the fast-growing, high-paying jobs in artificial intelligence, or get trapped in the “permanent underclass”, a phrase describing the fate of those who won’t have upward mobili...

Though a “permanent underclass” is not an imminent reality, in the near term AI could make some people richer and others worse off.

AI is expected to automate a large number of jobs. But when large numbers of people lose their means of earning a living, the situation cannot stay unbalanced forever. [...] History has repeatedly shown that societies do not stay in extreme imbalance...

For a long time many of us thought of RSI as the way AGI turns into superintelligence. [...] I was advocating what I called a semi-hard takeoff: a period where the self-improvement was real but not that fast, followed by a point -- once the AGI fully...

I do not think this will happen. I don’t think that automating AI R&D will rapidly produce domain-general superintelligence. I don’t think that a data centre of geniuses, largely separated from the rest of the economy, will figure out how to cure Alz...

Racing flat-out isn't inevitable; a negotiated mutual slowdown seems quite plausible.

The plan may be politically unrealistic. It may depend too heavily on compute remaining the main bottleneck. It may underestimate covert projects and overestimate international trust. But it is still a serious contribution because it makes the altern...

Plan A is capability-dependent and deal-dependent; its load-bearing conditions are weak or self-contradictory; and in the end it must trust the machine. The paper then sets out the alternative: a trust-free accord built on GOS.

The EESC backed the ambition of the European Commission’s proposed Cloud and AI Development Act, which aims to strengthen Europe’s digital infrastructure and reduce reliance on non-European companies. [...] The EESC is calling for cloud and AI infras...

Europe should prioritize “code over concrete.”

Pursuing AI dominance will provoke intense sabotage efforts by rivals. The US and China have clear incentives to race each other to greater AI capabilities; sole access to a sufficiently powerful AI system could give the country that developed it geo...

Plan A is the alternative. Delay superintelligence to 2040. Make all AI research public. Let dozens of companies in dozens of countries catch up to the frontier. And enter, deliberately and with eyes open, a regime of mutually assured compute destruc...

A doctrine whose trigger mechanism can be this thoroughly disputed cannot function as a deterrent. Deterrence requires certainty. MAD worked because both sides knew, with something close to certainty, what a launch would produce. MACD, as currently s...