The first company or companies to develop AGI could gain control over a majority of economic activity

For (13)

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  Daniel Kokotajlo

  AI Futures Project founder

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  votes For and says:

  We will end up in a very concentrated world where there's like one to five giant networks of data centres owned by one to five companies, possibly in coordination with their governments. [...] If you've only got one to five companies and they each ha... more AI Verified source (2026)

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  Tobias Sytsma

  Economist at RAND Corporation researching AI, automation, and the economics of foundation models

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  votes For and says:

  AGI may differ from past general-purpose technologies in ways that would allow a leader to turn an early advantage into decisive economic advantage. AI Verified source (2026)

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  Tom Wheeler

  Visiting Fellow at Brookings Institution; former Chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) 2013-2017; author and tech policy expert

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  votes For and says:

  Without data portability, interoperability, and shared access, the AI ecosystem will calcify around a small group of entrenched incumbents who control the essential asset. AI Verified source (2026)

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  Geoffrey Hinton

  Godfather of Deep Learning

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  votes For and says:

  I think the people who run the big tech companies — the very high up people, not all of them, but a lot of them — think we are going to get to AGI. Whoever gets there first is going to have immense power and be able to make immense profits by replaci... more AI Verified source (2026)

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  Larry Fink

  Chairman and CEO of BlackRock

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  votes For and says:

  Transformative technologies create enormous value—and much of that value accrues to the companies that build and deploy them, and to the investors who own them. The companies with the data, infrastructure, and capital to deploy AI at scale are positi... more AI Verified source (2026)

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  Tristan Harris

  Center for Humane Technology cofounder

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  votes For and says:

  They're not racing to augment and support human workers. They're racing to replace human workers. And what that will lead to is unprecedented levels of concentration and wealth and power because essentially, all the money in the economy — instead of ... more AI Verified source (2026)

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  Vinod Khosla

  Venture capitalist; Khosla Ventures founder

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  votes For and says:

  Whoever wins the AI race will win the economic race, and will win the race for economic power and influence globally. AI Verified source (2026)

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  Dario Amodei

  CEO at Anthropic

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  votes For and says:

  If the new country is not a security threat [...] but simply participates peacefully in the global economy, could it still create severe risks simply by being so technologically advanced and effective that it disrupts the global economy, causing mass... more AI Verified source (2026)

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  Jack Clark

  Anthropic cofounder and policy researcher

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  votes For and says:

  We should expect for an increasing chunk of the economy to get colonized by a new generation of companies which are either capital-heavy (because they own a lot of computers), or opex-heavy (because they spend a lot of money on AI services which they... more AI Verified source (2026)

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  Arthur Mensch

  Mistral AI co-founder and CEO

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  votes For and says:

  We don't want to be in a world where three or four enormous companies actually own the deployment and making of AI. [...] In a world where multiple digits of the GDP are going to be produced by AI in the coming two years, we need to ensure that every... more AI Verified source (2026)

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  Yoshua Bengio

  AI Pioneer, Turing Award winner

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  votes For and says:

  It doesn't make sense that private individuals are deciding the fate of infrastructure for everyone else. What about all the companies and all the countries that didn't get access? AI Verified source (2026)

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  Sam Altman

  CEO at OpenAI

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  votes For and says:

  Power in the future can either be held by a small handful of companies using and controlling superintelligence, or it can be held in a decentralized way by people. We believe the latter is much better [...] We will resist the potential of this techno... more AI Verified source (2026)

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  Stuart J. Russell

  AI Expert and Professor

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  votes For and says:

  Whichever company develops AGI first would have a significant advantage that would then increase relative to the other companies. That company — or a small handful of companies — may control a majority of economic activity on the planet and governmen... more AI Verified source (2026)

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Against (6)

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  Joseph Stiglitz

  Nobel laureate economist based at Columbia University

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  votes Against and says:

  The market believes that there are going to be high returns to these investments. That is predicated on two assumptions: that AI will be technologically successful and that there will be limited competition. [...] if it's technologically successful, ... more AI Unverifiable source (2026)

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  Gary Marcus

  Professor of Psychology and Neural Science

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  votes Against and says:

  Everybody, even Google, seems to be treating AI as if it were some kind of winner take all competition like web search was [...]. But everybody is building essentially the same technical solution with essentially the same data, so there is no moat. I... more AI Verified source (2026)

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  Kai-Fu Lee

  AI entrepreneur and author

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  votes Against and says:

  The deeper strategic question is whether the first company to reach AGI will dominate everything, or whether four American companies and two Chinese companies will all get there within months of one another, each serving a distinct ecosystem. [...] I... more AI Verified source (2026)

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  Mustafa Suleyman

  Microsoft AI CEO; author

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  votes Against and says:

  I don't think there's really a winning of AGI [...]. A race implies it's zero sum, and it implies that there's a finish line. As we know, technologies and science and knowledge proliferates everywhere [...] basically simultaneously, or within a year ... more AI Verified source (2026)

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  Satya Nadella

  Microsoft CEO

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  votes Against and says:

  The big winners here are not going to be tech companies. The winners are going to be the broader industry that uses this commodity [...] that, by the way, is abundant. Suddenly productivity goes up and the economy is growing at a faster rate. AI Verified source (2026)

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  Yann LeCun

  Computer scientist, AI researcher

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  votes Against and says:

  There is nothing qualitatively different between the previous technological revolutions and this one. It's just another set of tools that makes us more efficient. [...] Don't listen to CEOs [...] They have a vested interest in propping up the power o... more AI Verified source (2026)

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