Expert opinions on Future

Yea this is the most important result of the year, at the level of significance of “Attention Is All You Need”. It brings us from “is alignment even solvable” to “we may solve alignment in the next year.”

I used to always think that, you know, alignment will just fall out. I no longer believe that. So I think this alignment thing may be a harder, different problem.

Fundamentally, we just do not know how to do alignment. If somebody came with a thousand-page document that explained exactly how to do everything, we couldn’t get a model to learn exactly that.

Turns out, we were being unnecessarily pessimistic. Even though the planet is on fire, extreme temperatures will not be the ones to knock us out of the evolutionary game. (So much for our soggy paper straws.) Instead, we’ve decided to build something...

We have to change the way we talk about AI risk because for a very long time, it’s either existential and everything is going to die and the killer robots are coming, or it doesn’t really matter.

We do need to have some safeguards in place to make sure there are no unintended consequences, but, no, I do not think AI is going to imperil human existence.

This suggests pacing the advances: not training or deploying AIs without a strong safety case that convinces independent experts.

I believe that attempting to deliberately pace AI development will be extremely difficult, and could do more harm than good if done without proper care. However, I am signing this statement because, if an attempt at pacing does occur, it would be bet...

We will only encourage super intelligence. We’re going to encourage it, not rein it in.

Well, I do have a fundamental belief that AI is surprising. [...] I think that the way that things will change and how what we do with our time evolves and we clearly will be in a world of abundance and how do we ensure that that abundance is broadly...

The promise of artificial general intelligence is that it will provide unprecedented productivity gains that could allow all of humanity to achieve a standard of living greater than that experienced by those in the wealthiest nations.

AGI is generally understood as an AI system that can match or exceed human capabilities on most economically valuable tasks. In such a world, the automation of work would not be limited to specific industries or routine jobs. Instead, machines would ...

We should take decisive action now so that we can slow down, as the CEOs have recently acknowledged, slow down the pace of development in order to protect the American people and ensure that AI is proceeding safely.

I’m confident that a cooperative international approach (Plan A) is better than the alternatives because the alternatives involve being in a race during the intelligence explosion, which incurs huge risks. I’m not confident about the exact variant of...

We can put guardrails, we can do this and that, but I think you have a lot of negative forces that are bringing it up that ... shouldn’t be bringing it up, and they’re bringing up things that won’t happen. But whoever wins with AI wins.

AI isn’t going away. Barring unprecedented global government coordination, it isn’t even slowing down. The only real decision is whether to centralize power, or disperse it. Do you fear the technology? Or a small number of people controlling the te...

The “AGI-squashes-everyone” idea is unlikely, though not impossible. If American companies end up becoming dominant, my bet is that it will be because of the business ecosystems they build – not because they crossed a technological threshold that ren...