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Comment by Eliezer Yudkowsky

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AI researcher and writer
Waterfalls are one way of visualizing the odds form of Bayes’ rule, which states that the prior odds times the likelihood ratio equals the posterior odds.
Disputed (Feb 8, 2016)
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Robert Eidschun et al., editors of LessWrong’s “Waterfall diagrams and relative odds,” last updated February 8, 2026.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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Disputed The sentence appears on the cited LessWrong page, but that page credits multiple editors—“Edited by Eliezer Yudkowsky, Khana Santamaria, So8res, Robert Eidschun, et al.” — not Robert Eidschun alone. A matching earlier version of “Waterfall diagrams and relative odds” on Arbital attributes the text to Eliezer Yudkowsky on 2016-02-08. So the quote is real, but the stored author/date/source are not the canonical single-author attribution. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/w/waterfall-diagram?lens=bayes_waterfall_diseasitis)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
replying to Eliezer Yudkowsky