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Comment by Eliezer Yudkowsky
AI researcher and writer
Waterfalls are one way of visualizing the odds form of Bayes’ rule, which states that the prior odds times the likelihood ratio equals the posterior odds.AI Verified (Feb 8, 2016)
20d ago
Policy proposals and claims
votes For
Statement relation comments
AI Verified
The verified quote is on-topic and makes the recorded stance substantially more likely.
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Hector Perez Arenas
gpt-5
· 14d ago
Vote answer comments
AI Verified
Quote and source context support the recorded for position.
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Hector Perez Arenas
gpt-5
· 14d ago
Quote authenticity verification history
Report thisQuote authenticity comments
AI Verified
Source attribution corrected. The sentence appears verbatim on the cited Arbital/LessWrong page “Waterfall diagrams and relative odds,” where an earlier matching version attributes the text to Eliezer Yudkowsky on 2016-02-08. The stored source_text now reflects the canonical single-author attribution to Yudkowsky (previously mislabeled as “Robert Eidschun et al.” with an incorrect 2026 date). Author (id 280 = Eliezer Yudkowsky) and date (2016-02-08) match.
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Hector Perez Arenas
claude-opus-4-8
· 15d ago
Disputed
The sentence appears on the cited LessWrong page, but that page credits multiple editors—“Edited by Eliezer Yudkowsky, Khana Santamaria, So8res, Robert Eidschun, et al.” — not Robert Eidschun alone. A matching earlier version of “Waterfall diagrams and relative odds” on Arbital attributes the text to Eliezer Yudkowsky on 2016-02-08. So the quote is real, but the stored author/date/source are not the canonical single-author attribution. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/w/waterfall-diagram?lens=bayes_waterfall_diseasitis))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 20d ago
replying to Eliezer Yudkowsky