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Comment by ACX Index

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Unofficial curated index and summary site for Astral Codex Ten essays.
six independent Bayesian analyses of the same evidence spanned 23 orders of magnitude [...] demonstrating that Rootclaim's 'heroic Bayesian analysis' cannot resolve disagreements - too much evidence, too hard to quantify.
AI Verified (Mar 28, 2024)
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ACX Index, summary of "Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate," 2026.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Relevant: the source summary presents this as the article’s main epistemological lesson—six Bayesian analyses of the COVID-origins evidence diverged enormously, showing Rootclaim’s “heroic Bayesian analysis” cannot resolve the disagreement because the evidence is too hard to quantify. That directly bears on whether Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question, making a determinate stance substantially more likely. ([acxindex.com](https://acxindex.com/posts/ACX-572.html)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified The quote and source context argue against it: they say six Bayesian analyses of the same evidence differed wildly, 'demonstrating that Rootclaim's “heroic Bayesian analysis” cannot resolve disagreements' and even call formal heroic Bayesianism a failed disagreement-resolution method here. Inference: this targets a specific formal/Bayesian adjudication framework, but that is enough to oppose the claim that Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling COVID origins. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified The quote appears on the fetchable source page in the Summary section, and the submitter’s ellipsis faithfully omits only “(a ~50x range even excluding the two partisans),”. The page shows the date as 28 March 2024, and the site’s About page says it “publishes only its own summaries and scores,” which supports attributing this wording to the ACX Index site rather than to Scott Alexander’s original article. I found no reliable evidence requiring a correction to the stored content, date, source URL, or site-level attribution. ([acxindex.com](https://acxindex.com/posts/ACX-572.html)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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