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Comment by Saar Wilf

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Entrepreneur and founder of Rootclaim, a platform applying Bayesian probabilistic analysis to disputed questions.
Whatever restriction you choose to apply to the virus on the lab-leak side, you need to apply to zoonosis (otherwise you’re calculating conditional probabilities of different evidence for each side).
AI Verified (Apr 9, 2024)
Source:
Rootclaim Blog, "COVID origins debate: Response to Scott Alexander," April 1, 2024; new addition after April 9, 2024 says it is copying responses by Rootclaim founder Saar Wilf.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The quote is directly about conditional probabilities and symmetric likelihood comparisons between lab leak and zoonosis; in the article, the author explicitly says the goal is to estimate Bayes factors and calls this the best way to approach the Covid origins question, so the stance on using Bayesian analysis is determinable. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/covid-origins-debate-response-to-scott-alexander/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17 · 3mo ago
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AI Verified The quote is making a Bayesian-style point about comparing conditional probabilities symmetrically, and the article explicitly says they “fully agree” probabilistic inference is the best way to reach a decision on COVID origins. That strongly supports Bayesian analysis as the right framework. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17 · 3mo ago

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AI Verified Verified: the sentence appears verbatim on the Rootclaim page in the section introducing responses copied from founder Saar Wilf, and the same wording is labeled "Saar Wilf Apr 9, 2024" in ACX comments. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17 · 3mo ago
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Jonathan Jonathan Rootclaim blog author Andrew T. Levin Andrew T. Levin Economist, Professor at Dartmouth College and NBER Research Associate OpenAI OpenAI AI research organization Scott Alexander Scott Alexander Author and psychiatrist Yoshua Bengio Yoshua Bengio AI Pioneer, Turing Award winner Demis Hassabis Demis Hassabis Nobel laureate, AI Researcher and CEO of DeepMind Anthropic Anthropic AI safety research company Richard H. Ebright Richard H. Ebright Molecular biologist, Rutgers University; Board of Governors Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology Chris Lehane Chris Lehane OpenAI chief global affairs officer