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Comment by Saar Wilf
Entrepreneur and founder of Rootclaim, a platform applying Bayesian probabilistic analysis to disputed questions.
Whatever restriction you choose to apply to the virus on the lab-leak side, you need to apply to zoonosis (otherwise you’re calculating conditional probabilities of different evidence for each side).AI Verified (Apr 9, 2024)
1h ago
Policy proposals and claims
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Statement relation comments
AI Verified
The quote is directly about conditional probabilities and symmetric likelihood comparisons between lab leak and zoonosis; in the article, the author explicitly says the goal is to estimate Bayes factors and calls this the best way to approach the Covid origins question, so the stance on using Bayesian analysis is determinable. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/covid-origins-debate-response-to-scott-alexander/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17
· 1h ago
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AI Verified
The quote is making a Bayesian-style point about comparing conditional probabilities symmetrically, and the article explicitly says they “fully agree” probabilistic inference is the best way to reach a decision on COVID origins. That strongly supports Bayesian analysis as the right framework.
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17
· 1h ago
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AI Verified
Verified: the sentence appears verbatim on the Rootclaim page in the section introducing responses copied from founder Saar Wilf, and the same wording is labeled "Saar Wilf Apr 9, 2024" in ACX comments. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17
· 1h ago
replying to Saar Wilf