Saar Wilf on Bayesian analysis is the right framewor…

Saar Wilf

Entrepreneur and founder of Rootclaim, a platform applying Bayesian probabilistic analysis to disputed questions.

You should almost never see very high Bayes factors on both sides of an argument.

AI Verified (Apr 1, 2024)

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Saar Wilf, quoted in Jonathan, "COVID origins debate: Response to Scott Alexander," Rootclaim Blog, April 1, 2024.

2mo ago

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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question

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AI Verified Wilf's statement about Bayes factors is directly about Bayesian evidence in the COVID-origins debate. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 2mo ago

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AI Verified Correct answer is for: the quote and its verified statement link support that recorded position. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 2mo ago

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AI Verified Rootclaim article attributes this wording to Saar Wilf. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 2mo ago

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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question

Whatever restriction you choose to apply to the virus on the lab-leak side, you need to apply to zoonosis (otherwise you’re calculating conditional probabilities of different evidence for each side).

AI Verified source (Apr 9, 2024)