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Comment by Tommaso Costa

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StatModeling commenter comparing market-origin and lab-origin likelihoods
Using a log-normal model to allow for a fourfold uncertainty in early counts, the data are about 10 times more likely under the market-origin scenario than the lab-origin scenario. My calculation was a deliberately simple likelihood comparison: given some realistic-seeming starting assumptions and early case-count estimates, how well does each scenario generate the observed infections after the first month?
AI Verified (Aug 13, 2025)
Source:
Tommaso Costa, comments on Andrew Gelman, "Controversy over different estimates of covid origins probabilities," Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, August 12-13, 2025.
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Policy proposals and claims
COVID-19 originated from a lab-related incident rather than natural zoonotic spillover
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AI Verified The quote says the observed data are about 10 times more likely under market origin than lab origin, which clearly opposes the lab-related-incident statement. model:gpt-5.4-mini · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.4-mini · 19d ago
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AI Verified The quote says the data are about 10 times more likely under market origin than lab origin, so against the lab-related-incident statement is correct. model:gpt-5.4-mini · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.4-mini · 19d ago
The clustering of early cases around the Huanan market reflects where the COVID-19 virus emerged, not just where testing looked
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AI Verified The quote says the early-case data are about ten times more likely under a market-origin scenario than a lab-origin scenario, making it directly relevant to the statement and strongly supportive of it. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
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AI Verified Recorded answer 'for' matches the quote's conclusion that the early-case data are much more likely under a market-origin scenario than a lab-origin scenario. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Tommaso explicitly offers a Bayes-factor likelihood comparison between market-origin and lab-origin scenarios, so the quote is directly on-topic. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
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AI Verified Tommaso explicitly offers and defends a Bayes-factor likelihood comparison between market-origin and lab-origin scenarios, supporting the statement. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago

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AI Verified The cited StatModeling source contains the stored wording across Tommaso Costa's August 12-13, 2025 comments, including the Bayes-factor sentence and the follow-up explanation. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
replying to Tommaso Costa