Brendan Halstead on We should adopt AI 2040 Plan A

Brendan Halstead

AI Futures Project researcher writing on AI takeoff modeling and Plan A capability trajectories.

This supplement explains how we forecast AI capabilities in various parts of Plan A. We modified the AI Futures Model to simulate four situations.

AI Verified (Jul 9, 2026)

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This supplement explains how we forecast AI capabilities in various parts of Plan A. We modified the AI Futures Model to simulate four situations.

1mo ago

Policy proposals and claims

We should adopt AI 2040 Plan A

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AI Verified The quote directly addresses a material Plan A element—verifiable international coordination, a managed slowdown, transparency, or safety governance—and supports or critiques adoption accordingly. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.6 · 1mo ago

AI Verified As a Plan A supplement author, explains its capability forecast; source context establishes support for the proposed plan. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.6 · 1mo ago

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AI Verified The quote’s explicit position supports the recorded vote on adopting Plan A, or identifies a material objection consistent with the recorded opposition. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.6 · 1mo ago

AI Verified Plan A supplement author presents its proposed trajectory in support context. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.6 · 1mo ago

Quote authenticity verification history

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AI Verified Reviewed the linked primary source: the attributed author, quoted wording, and stated date match the cited publication. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.6 · 1mo ago

AI Verified AI 2040 Takeoff Forecast contains the exact wording and identifies Brendan Halstead. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.6 · 1mo ago

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Pausing AI at human-genius level to solve alignment is safer than either racing to superintelligence or halting entirely

Unlike all other actors we model, the consortium is not racing to build better AIs as fast as they possibly can. The specific strategies are discussed in more detail in the Capabilities Scaling Strategy supplement, but at a high level, the strategy i...

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