Comment by McKinsey Global Institute

While estimates of the full impact of AI on the workforce differ widely, our base estimate indicates that automation could reduce labor demand by the equivalent of roughly 36 million jobs, while growth in the AI value chain and the broader economy could generate demand for more than 40 million jobs over the next decade. Our estimates reflect four factors. First, automation enabled by AI and other technologies could reduce labor demand, but not on a one-for-one basis, because automation of work does not translate directly into job losses. Second, the demographic backdrop and rising living standards could drive sustained labor demand growth in the “human economy”—jobs that are often harder to automate and already face or could face labor shortages. Third, the AI boom, combined with the need to modernize infrastructure, could increase demand for workers in both the “physical economy” and the “tech economy.” Finally, we expect AI itself to create new jobs that we cannot yet imagine, just as previous general-purpose technologies did.