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Comment by Zach H

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Statistical Modeling blog commenter on virology, Bayesian analysis, and COVID-19 origins
Instead of a Bayes factor of 0.25, we get a Bayes factor of 11.95 because one reasonable model (early cases predict locations of subsequent cases) is compared to an unreasonable model (everyone is infected by raccoon dogs).
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Zach H, comment on Andrew Gelman, "What do I think of this Bayesian analysis of the origins of covid?", Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, February 5, 2025.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The source URL is fetchable and contains the quote verbatim in a comment attributed to “Zach H” and dated February 5, 2025 (7:17 pm). The stored author, date, source URL, and quote text match the page, so no correction is needed. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
replying to Zach H