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Comment by Zach H

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Statistical Modeling blog commenter on virology, Bayesian analysis, and COVID-19 origins
Instead of a Bayes factor of 0.25, we get a Bayes factor of 11.95 because one reasonable model (early cases predict locations of subsequent cases) is compared to an unreasonable model (everyone is infected by raccoon dogs).
AI Verified (Feb 5, 2025)
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Zach H, comment on Andrew Gelman, "What do I think of this Bayesian analysis of the origins of covid?", Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, February 5, 2025.
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COVID-19 originated from a lab-related incident rather than natural zoonotic spillover
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AI Verified The quote compares a market-location model favorably against a lab-origin model, so it is relevant and points against the lab-related-incident statement. model:gpt-5.4-mini · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.4-mini · 18d ago
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AI Verified The quote compares a market-origin model favorably against a lab-origin model, so for the lab-related-incident statement is correct. model:gpt-5.4-mini · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.4-mini · 18d ago
The clustering of early cases around the Huanan market reflects where the COVID-19 virus emerged, not just where testing looked
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AI Verified The quote critiques a Bayesian market-origin Bayes factor and argues the model understated evidence for the Huanan market, which points against this statement as phrased. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 18d ago
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AI Verified Correct answer is 'against': the quote argues the market-origin Bayes factor was understated by an unreasonable model. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 18d ago
Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The quote is directly about a Bayes factor and model choice in COVID-origins analysis, so it is relevant to the Bayesian-framework statement. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 18d ago
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AI Verified The quote argues the Bayes factor changes because of better model comparison, which treats Bayesian analysis as the relevant framework and supports the statement. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 18d ago

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AI Verified The source URL is fetchable and contains the quote verbatim in a comment attributed to “Zach H” and dated February 5, 2025 (7:17 pm). The stored author, date, source URL, and quote text match the page, so no correction is needed. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 20d ago
replying to Zach H