We can't find the internet
Attempting to reconnect
Something went wrong!
Hang in there while we get back on track
Zach H
I am this person!
Delegate
Choose a list of delegates
to vote as the majority of them.
Unless you vote directly.
Statistical Modeling blog commenter on virology, Bayesian analysis, and COVID-19 origins
I am this person!
covid-19-origins (3)
flf-epistack (3)
health (3)
public-health (3)
research-policy (3)
disinformation (2)
world (2)
Top
New
-
Zach H
votes For
and says:
Instead of a Bayes factor of 0.25, we get a Bayes factor of 11.95 because one reasonable model (early cases predict locations of subsequent cases) is compared to an unreasonable model (everyone is infected by raccoon dogs).
AI Verified source (Feb 5, 2025)
added 2mo ago
-
The clustering of early cases around the Huanan market reflects where the COVID-19 virus emerged, not just where testing looked
273 opinions
Zach H
votes Against
and says:
Instead of a Bayes factor of 0.25, we get a Bayes factor of 11.95 because one reasonable model (early cases predict locations of subsequent cases) is compared to an unreasonable model (everyone is infected by raccoon dogs).
AI Verified source (Feb 5, 2025)
added 2mo ago
-
Zach H
votes For
and says:
Instead of a Bayes factor of 0.25, we get a Bayes factor of 11.95 because one reasonable model (early cases predict locations of subsequent cases) is compared to an unreasonable model (everyone is infected by raccoon dogs).
AI Verified source (Feb 5, 2025)
added 2mo ago
Other authors to follow
Jonathan
Rootclaim blog author
Andrew T. Levin
Economist, Professor at Dartmouth College and NBER Research Associate
OpenAI
AI research organization
Scott Alexander
Author and psychiatrist
Yoshua Bengio
AI Pioneer, Turing Award winner
Demis Hassabis
Nobel laureate, AI Researcher and CEO of DeepMind
Anthropic
AI safety research company
Richard H. Ebright
Molecular biologist, Rutgers University; Board of Governors Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology
Chris Lehane
OpenAI chief global affairs officer