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Comment by Ryan Alweiss

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Commenter on Bayesian reasoning and COVID-19 origins
It’s worth noting that rootclaim.com got this right. They have many bold claims and they seem to be using good Bayesian reasoning.
AI Verified (Jun 22, 2021)
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Ryan Alweiss, comment on Scott Aaronson, “On Guilt,” Shtetl-Optimized, June 22, 2021.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The quote is relevant. In the source context, the surrounding comments are explicitly about the origin of COVID-19 and the lab-leak question, so "got this right" refers to that issue. By praising Rootclaim for having "good Bayesian reasoning" in reaching the right conclusion on COVID origins, the author is directly endorsing Bayesian reasoning as an appropriate way to resolve that question, making a stance on the complete statement substantially more likely than the alternatives. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified The quote is supportive: Ryan Alweiss says Rootclaim "got this right" on the COVID-origins issue and praises it for "good Bayesian reasoning," which strongly implies he views Bayesian analysis as an appropriate framework for evaluating that question, even if he does not explicitly say it is the only or definitive framework for settling it. ([scottaaronson.blog](https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=5542)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified The Scott Aaronson post page contains comment #150, attributed to Ryan Alweiss and timestamped June 22nd, 2021 at 11:39 pm; the comment text matches the submitted quote verbatim, so the stored author, date, content, and source URL are correct. ([scottaaronson.blog](https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=5542)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
replying to Ryan Alweiss