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Comment by Ilio

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LessWrong commenter on Bayesian reasoning and COVID-19 origins
To be clear, my problem is not with the possibility of a lab leak itself, it’s with the evaluation that present evidences are anything but posthoc rationalizations fueled by unhealthy levels of tunnel vision.
AI Verified (Feb 19, 2024)
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Ilio, comment on viking_math, "On coincidences and Bayesian reasoning, as applied to the origins of COVID-19," LessWrong, February 19, 2024.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Relevant: in the source context, the discussion is explicitly about using Bayes factors/Bayesian reasoning to argue the COVID-19 origins question; Davidmanheim says this kind of informal Bayesian estimate is flawed as public argument, and Ilio agrees that the current evidence evaluation is post hoc rationalization driven by tunnel vision. That makes an anti stance on the complete statement substantially more likely. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NrKQGyggC7jcersuJ/on-coincidences-and-bayesian-reasoning-as-applied-to-the)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified The quote argues that the current evidence evaluation is "posthoc rationalizations fueled by unhealthy levels of tunnel vision," and in the source context Ilio calls these beliefs a "trap for the rational minds." That strongly implies opposition to the idea that Bayesian-style analysis, at least as used here to decide COVID origins, is the right framework for settling the question, even if he does not reject Bayes in general. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified The exact sentence appears on the LessWrong source page as part of a comment attributed to Ilio, and a direct GreaterWrong mirror of that comment shows it dated 19 Feb 2024 15:14 UTC. The stored author, content, date, and source URL are consistent. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NrKQGyggC7jcersuJ/on-coincidences-and-bayesian-reasoning-as-applied-to-the)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
replying to Ilio