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Comment by avturchin

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LessWrong commenter on Bayesian reasoning and COVID-19 origins
My point was that in some cases the update can be so strong that it overrides all reasonable uncertainties in priors and personal estimates. And exactly this makes Bayes’ theorem useful and strong instrument.
AI Verified (Feb 21, 2024)
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avturchin, comment on viking_math, "On coincidences and Bayesian reasoning, as applied to the origins of COVID-19," LessWrong, February 19, 2024.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified In context, the quote is directly about using Bayesian updating to evaluate COVID-origin evidence: the author argues that strong evidence can outweigh uncertainty about priors and says this is what makes Bayes' theorem a "useful and strong instrument" here. That makes a stance supporting the statement substantially more likely than alternatives. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NrKQGyggC7jcersuJ/on-coincidences-and-bayesian-reasoning-as-applied-to-the)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified In context, he is applying Bayes to COVID origins and says a strong update can override uncertainties in priors, which is "exactly" what makes Bayes' theorem a "useful and strong instrument"; that strongly implies support for Bayesian analysis as the proper framework for resolving this question, even if he does not explicitly say it is the only framework. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NrKQGyggC7jcersuJ/on-coincidences-and-bayesian-reasoning-as-applied-to-the)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified Verified: the LessWrong source page contains this exact two-sentence excerpt in a comment attributed to avturchin, and a GreaterWrong mirror of the same thread gives the exact timestamp as 21 Feb 2024 18:24 UTC. The wording matches verbatim aside from apostrophe/quote-style normalization across mirrors, so the stored author, content, source URL, and date are supported. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NrKQGyggC7jcersuJ/on-coincidences-and-bayesian-reasoning-as-applied-to-the)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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