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Comment by Greg D

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LessWrong commenter on Bayesian reasoning and probability estimates
The former case is cause to relax; the latter is not. Yeah, in a sense this is obvious. But it's a reminder that seeing a probability estimate isn't a substitute for real diligence.
AI Verified (Jan 12, 2026)
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Greg D, comment on viking_math, "The false confidence theorem and Bayesian reasoning," LessWrong, January 2026.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Verified: the exact quoted sentences appear verbatim on the LessWrong comment permalink and are attributed there to Greg D; Greg D’s profile also shows the same comment snippet on the same post, corroborating authorship. The fetched page confirms the quote, author, and source URL, though it exposes only relative timing for the comment. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HjbsjnutKE9xbXBwz?commentId=iw36LeFCq4KKsYJPG)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
replying to Greg D