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Comment by oncodoc

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StatModeling commenter on statistical reasoning and COVID-19 origins
I have a very incomplete understanding of statistics. I understand sort of how to use probability prospectively. Retrospectively has me confused. The Washington Nationals are unlikely to win a World Series; therefore 2019 did not happen?
AI Verified (Aug 1, 2025)
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oncodoc, comment on Andrew Gelman, "Controversy over different estimates of covid origins probabilities," Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, August 1, 2025.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The quote is about whether retrospective probability reasoning makes sense in assessing COVID origins, so it is directly relevant to the statement. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 1h ago
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AI Verified oncodoc says retrospective probability reasoning is confusing and uses the Washington Nationals analogy to question it, opposing the statement. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 1h ago

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AI Verified The cited StatModeling page contains oncodoc's August 1, 2025 comment expressing confusion about retrospective probability reasoning. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 1h ago
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