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Comment by Paul Cristol

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Researcher and author writing on consciousness in large language models.
A Bayesian meta-analysis using an extremely skeptical prior (0.1%) and conservative dependency assumptions yields posterior probability of 6–12% that current LLMs are conscious.
AI Verified (Feb 12, 2026)
Source:
Paul Cristol, “Artificial Intelligence Beyond Stochastic Parrots: A Systematic Review and Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Consciousness in Large Language Models,” February 12, 2026.
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AI might become conscious
votes For
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AI Verified A stated 6–12% posterior probability that current LLMs are conscious directly supports AI possibly being conscious. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.6 · 1h ago
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AI Verified The stated nonzero consciousness posterior supports “for,” matching the recorded vote. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.6 · 1h ago

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AI Verified SSRN/PhilPapers record for Paul Cristol’s manuscript contains the quoted Bayesian-meta-analysis sentence, dated 12 Feb 2026. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.6 · 1h ago
replying to Paul Cristol