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Comment by Scott Alexander
Author and psychiatrist
I think my real p(doom|no pause) is probably a few points above 20%, and my real p(doom|maybe-pause) is probably a few points below 20%, but the haters and losers get mad if you offer excessively specific probabilities like 18%, so I'm rounding both of them off to 20%.AI Verified source (2026)
20d ago
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AI Verified
Verified verbatim. The Astral Codex Ten post "My AI Opinions" by Scott Alexander, published June 11, 2026, contains the exact quoted sentence at lines 114-116 of the source page, so the wording, attribution, year, and source URL match. ([astralcodexten.com](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-ai-opinions))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 19d ago
replying to Scott Alexander