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Comment by Michael B. Weissman

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Physicist, Professor Emeritus at the University of Illinois
Early on in the Covid pandemic, I took a preliminary look at the relative probabilities that SARS-CoV-2 (SC2) came from some sort of lab leak vs. more traditional direct zoonotic paths.
AI Verified source (Aug 31, 2023)
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Relevant: on the source page, this sentence appears in an article presented as a robust Bayesian examination of COVID origins, and the nearby text says the author will calculate the odds using robust Bayesian analysis. That makes the quote part of the author’s reasoning about whether Bayesian analysis is the proper framework for the COVID-origins question, so a stance is determinable. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
AI Verified Relevant: in source context, Weissman frames the piece as "A robust Bayesian look at Covid origins," says he will "objectively calculate the odds," and states "Our method will be robust Bayesian analysis." This quote is his setup for comparing lab-leak and zoonotic probabilities, so it is directly about applying Bayesian reasoning to the COVID-origins question and gives a determinable stance signal on the full statement. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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AI Verified The provided URL is a fetchable Substack post titled “An Inconvenient Probability,” credited to Michael Weissman and dated Aug. 31, 2023. In the post’s Introduction, the submitted sentence appears verbatim, so the quote is authentic and present at the cited source URL. A University of Illinois faculty page identifies the same person under the fuller name Michael B Weissman, which supports the stored attribution. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
AI Verified The source URL is live. The Substack post “An Inconvenient Probability,” bylined “Michael Weissman” and dated 2023-08-31, contains the quoted sentence verbatim in its introduction. Independent academic sources identify the same author as Michael B. Weissman, so the attribution is consistent. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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