Michael B. Weissman on Bayesian analysis is the right framewor…

Michael B. Weissman

Physicist, Professor Emeritus at the University of Illinois

This first likelihood ratio, from Wuhan being the starting location, is then: P(Wuhan|LL)/P(Wuhan|ZW) = ~100 We can estimate the standard error in that estimate as about a factor of 2.

AI Verified source (Aug 31, 2023)

2mo ago

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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question

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AI Verified Relevant: the source explicitly presents itself as “A robust Bayesian look at Covid origins” and says “Our method will be robust Bayesian analysis,” then uses likelihood ratios and uncertainty estimates to update origin odds. This quote is one of those concrete Bayesian update steps, so in source context it strongly signals a determinate stance on whether Bayesian analysis is the appropriate framework for resolving the COVID-origins question. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2mo ago

AI Verified Relevant: the article explicitly presents itself as a Bayesian analysis of COVID origins and says the method used is robust Bayesian analysis; the quoted passage is one of its core likelihood-ratio updates using Wuhan-as-starting-location evidence. That makes this quote part of the author’s argument for using a Bayesian framework on the COVID-origins question, so a determinate stance on the complete statement is available. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2mo ago

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AI Verified The Substack page An Inconvenient Probability is by Michael Weissman and dated Aug. 31, 2023. Its text at lines 135-139 contains the quoted passage verbatim, including P(Wuhan|LL)/P(Wuhan|ZW) = ~100 and the sentence about a factor of 2. A University of Illinois profile identifies the same person as Michael B Weissman, so the attribution to Michael B. Weissman is consistent. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2mo ago

AI Verified The provided URL is fetchable and shows the post title “An Inconvenient Probability,” the byline “Michael Weissman,” and the date “Aug 31, 2023.” The quoted text appears there verbatim at lines 135–139, so the quote is real, correctly attributed, and present at the stated source URL. External references also cite this work as Weissman/M.B. Weissman, so the stored author/date/source do not require correction. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2mo ago

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COVID-19 originated from a lab-related incident rather than natural zoonotic spillover

Using only the data, model, and simulations of P2022 itself, I show that once a basic logic error is fixed the P2022 approach implies that a single successful spillover of SARS CoV-2 was more likely than a double successful spillover pair. The EJW pa...

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