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Comment by Michael Weissman

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Professor Emeritus of Physics
In order to realistically allow for uncertainty in the factors (i.e. to use robust Bayes) users will need to try various combinations of plausible values and then take a weighted average of the resulting probabilities, not of the resulting odds, to get their best odds estimate.
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Policy proposals and claims
Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Relevant: in source context, the article is explicitly "A robust Bayesian look at Covid origins" and says "Our method will be robust Bayesian analysis" for calculating COVID-origin odds; this quote explains how to do that robust-Bayes averaging under uncertainty, so it directly supports a determinable pro-Bayesian-framework stance on the COVID origins question. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
AI Verified Relevant: in a source explicitly presenting COVID origins as a "robust Bayesian analysis," the quote gives instructions for how users should combine uncertain Bayes factors to estimate the origins odds, so it directly bears on whether Bayesian analysis is the appropriate framework and makes a pro-framework stance substantially more likely. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability-v57)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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AI Verified The quote is authentic. The fetchable Substack page at the provided URL contains the exact sentence verbatim, and the same page identifies the author as Michael Weissman and the publication date as Aug 31, 2023. I found no evidence that the stored author, date, content, or source URL need correction. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
AI Verified The quote is authentic and verbatim: the exact sentence appears on the Substack post "An Inconvenient Probability," whose byline is "Michael Weissman" and whose date is August 31, 2023. The source URL is fetchable and contains the quote exactly. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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