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Comment by Mike P

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LessWrong commenter on Bayesian reasoning and COVID-19 origins
Weissman's Bayesian analysis provides a thorough overview and is probably as good a case for lab origin as any.
AI Verified (Mar 26, 2024)
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Mike P, comment on viking_math, "On coincidences and Bayesian reasoning, as applied to the origins of COVID-19," LessWrong, February 19, 2024.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Relevant: in context, the source page is about Bayesian reasoning applied to COVID-19 origins, and Mike P uses this line as part of a list of arguments challenging the post's anti-lab-leak claims. By explicitly praising "Weissman's Bayesian analysis" as a thorough overview and one of the best cases for lab origin, the quote is directly about using Bayesian analysis to address the origins question and makes support substantially more likely than opposition. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NrKQGyggC7jcersuJ/on-coincidences-and-bayesian-reasoning-as-applied-to-the?utm_source=openai)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified He calls Weissman's Bayesian analysis "a thorough overview" and "as good a case for lab origin as any," which implies he sees Bayesian analysis as an appropriate and strong framework for assessing COVID origins, even though he does not explicitly say it is uniquely decisive for settling the question. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NrKQGyggC7jcersuJ/on-coincidences-and-bayesian-reasoning-as-applied-to-the)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified Verified: the LessWrong source URL contains a comment by Mike P, and the exact sentence appears there verbatim. The surrounding lines show it is posted under Mike P’s comment on the viking_math post, so the attribution matches. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NrKQGyggC7jcersuJ/on-coincidences-and-bayesian-reasoning-as-applied-to-the)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
replying to Mike P