Good Judgment Inc on COVID-19 originated from a lab-related …

Good Judgment Inc

Forecasting organization known for aggregated probabilistic judgments by Superforecasters.

Superforecasters assess that natural zoonosis is three times more likely to be the cause of the Covid-19 pandemic than either a biomedical research-related accident or some other process or mechanism.

AI Verified (Mar 11, 2024)

Source:

Superforecasters’ assessment of the origins of Covid-19

3mo ago

Policy proposals and claims

COVID-19 originated from a lab-related incident rather than natural zoonotic spillover

votes Against

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AI Verified The quote directly compares natural zoonosis with a biomedical research-related accident as explanations for Covid-19’s origin, so it is on-topic for the complete statement and clearly signals the author’s stance on the lab-origin vs. natural-spillover issue. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17 · 3mo ago

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AI Verified The source explicitly says natural zoonosis is three times more likely than a biomedical research-related accident, and gives 74% vs. 25% probabilities, so it opposes the claim that COVID-19 originated from a lab-related incident rather than zoonotic spillover. ([goodjudgment.com](https://goodjudgment.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Superforecasters-Covid-Origin-20240311.pdf)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17 · 3mo ago

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AI Verified Verified: the PDF at the provided URL is a Good Judgment Inc report dated March 11, 2024, and its executive summary contains the quote verbatim: “Superforecasters assess that natural zoonosis is three times more likely to be the cause of the Covid-19 pandemic than either a biomedical research-related accident or some other process or mechanism.” ([goodjudgment.com](https://goodjudgment.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Superforecasters-Covid-Origin-20240311.pdf)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17 · 3mo ago

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Good Judgment Inc votes For

Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question

The Superforecasters frequently referenced base rates, i.e., the history of pandemics emerging from natural zoonosis versus the history of laboratory leaks, to anchor their probabilities.

AI Verified source (Mar 11, 2024)