YouCongress
About Sign up

Comment by Good Judgment Inc

Human avatar
Forecasting organization known for aggregated probabilistic judgments by Superforecasters.
The Superforecasters frequently referenced base rates, i.e., the history of pandemics emerging from natural zoonosis versus the history of laboratory leaks, to anchor their probabilities.
AI Verified (Mar 11, 2024)
Source:
Good Judgment Inc, "Superforecasting the Origins of the COVID-19 Pandemic," March 11, 2024.
Like Share on X 2h ago
Policy proposals and claims
Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
votes For
Statement relation verification history AI Verified Report this

Statement relation comments

AI Verified The report describes Superforecasters applying base rates to COVID-origin probabilities, directly supporting Bayesian analysis. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 1h ago
Vote inference verification history AI Verified Report this

Vote answer comments

AI Verified Correct answer is for: the quote and its verified statement link support that recorded position. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 1h ago

Quote authenticity verification history

Report this

Quote authenticity comments

AI Verified Good Judgment report presents this wording as its Superforecasters' finding on use of base rates. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 1h ago
replying to Good Judgment Inc