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Comment by gec

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StatModeling commenter on uncertainty and COVID-19 origins
The arguments around covid origins seem largely to fall into an inference trap Andrew has termed premature collapse of the wavefunction. Rather than maintaining multiple hypotheses with different levels of credibility, there seems to be a desire to commit to a single conclusion without sufficient evidence to warrant doing so.
AI Verified (Aug 1, 2025)
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gec, comment on Andrew Gelman, "Controversy over different estimates of covid origins probabilities," Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, August 1, 2025.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The quote argues for maintaining multiple hypotheses with different credibility levels rather than premature certainty, which is directly relevant to Bayesian-style inference in this debate. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 1h ago
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AI Verified gec urges maintaining multiple hypotheses and avoiding premature certainty rather than endorsing one framework as settling the question, so the stance is neutral/undecided. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 1h ago

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AI Verified The cited StatModeling page contains gec's August 1, 2025 comment about maintaining multiple hypotheses with different credibilities. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 1h ago
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