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Comment by Nick

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StatModeling commenter favoring a lab-origin explanation for COVID-19
In my view the answer here is so obvious that a formal analysis is not really necessary. There is basically no chance at all that this is a coincidence.
AI Verified (Aug 1, 2025)
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Nick, comment on Andrew Gelman, "Controversy over different estimates of covid origins probabilities," Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, August 1, 2025.
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Policy proposals and claims
The clustering of early cases around the Huanan market reflects where the COVID-19 virus emerged, not just where testing looked
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AI Verified The comment is about covid-origin probability estimates and rejects the market coincidence idea, which is directly relevant to the emergence claim. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 19d ago
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AI Verified The comment says the answer is obvious and that it likely originated in a Wuhan lab, which supports against the market-emergence claim. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 19d ago
Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Nick says the answer is obvious and that formal analysis is not necessary, which is directly relevant as opposition to Bayesian analysis as the right framework here. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
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AI Verified Nick says there is basically no chance this is coincidence and that formal analysis is not necessary, opposing the claim that Bayesian analysis is the right framework here. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago

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AI Verified Exact wording appears in Nick's August 1, 2025 StatModeling comment saying the answer is obvious and formal analysis is unnecessary. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
replying to Nick