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Comment by Nick Patterson

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StatModeling commenter on furin-cleavage-site evidence and COVID-19 origins
What are the chances this is unconnected with the pandemic outbreak? Weissman attempted to quantify this but it is clear that the probability must be vanishingly small.
AI Verified (Aug 1, 2025)
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Nick Patterson, comment on Andrew Gelman, "Controversy over different estimates of covid origins probabilities," Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, August 1, 2025.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified In context this reply defends Weissman's quantified probability argument about origin odds, so it is directly about probabilistic/Bayesian assessment of the origins question. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 1h ago
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AI Verified In context Nick Patterson defends Weissman's quantified probability argument and says the unconnected scenario's probability is vanishingly small, supporting Bayesian/probabilistic analysis here. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 1h ago

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AI Verified Exact wording appears in Nick Patterson's August 1, 2025 StatModeling comment on Weissman's quantified probability argument. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 1h ago
replying to Nick Patterson