YouCongress
About Sign up

Comment by Nick Patterson

Human avatar
StatModeling commenter on furin-cleavage-site evidence and COVID-19 origins
What are the chances this is unconnected with the pandemic outbreak? Weissman attempted to quantify this but it is clear that the probability must be vanishingly small.
AI Verified (Aug 1, 2025)
Source:
Nick Patterson, comment on Andrew Gelman, "Controversy over different estimates of covid origins probabilities," Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, August 1, 2025.
Like Share on X 20d ago
Policy proposals and claims
COVID-19 originated from a lab-related incident rather than natural zoonotic spillover
votes For
Statement relation verification history AI Verified Report this

Statement relation comments

AI Verified The quote says the chance that the Wuhan lab work was unconnected to the pandemic is vanishingly small, so it is directly relevant to the lab-origin statement and strongly supports it. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
Vote inference verification history AI Verified Report this

Vote answer comments

AI Verified Recorded answer 'for' matches the quote's claim that the chance the Wuhan lab work was unrelated to the pandemic is vanishingly small. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
The clustering of early cases around the Huanan market reflects where the COVID-19 virus emerged, not just where testing looked
votes Against
Statement relation verification history AI Verified Report this

Statement relation comments

AI Verified The quote says the connection between the Wuhan lab's planned work and the pandemic is vanishingly unlikely to be coincidental, which points against the market-origin claim. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 19d ago
Vote inference verification history AI Verified Report this

Vote answer comments

AI Verified Correct answer is 'against': the quote says the Wuhan lab connection is vanishingly unlikely to be coincidental. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 19d ago
Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
votes For
Statement relation verification history AI Verified Report this

Statement relation comments

AI Verified In context this reply defends Weissman's quantified probability argument about origin odds, so it is directly about probabilistic/Bayesian assessment of the origins question. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
Vote inference verification history AI Verified Report this

Vote answer comments

AI Verified In context Nick Patterson defends Weissman's quantified probability argument and says the unconnected scenario's probability is vanishingly small, supporting Bayesian/probabilistic analysis here. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago

Quote authenticity verification history

Report this

Quote authenticity comments

AI Verified Exact wording appears in Nick Patterson's August 1, 2025 StatModeling comment on Weissman's quantified probability argument. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
replying to Nick Patterson