YouCongress
About Sign up

Comment by Gregory C. Mayer

Human avatar
StatModeling commenter critiquing COVID-19 origin evidence
If the lab were sited for its proximity to the viruses to be studied, then there’s nothing very surprising or evidentially salient for a virus to be found in its vicinity.
AI Verified (Aug 1, 2025)
Source:
Gregory C. Mayer, comment on Andrew Gelman, "Controversy over different estimates of covid origins probabilities," Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, August 1, 2025.
Like Share on X 20d ago
Policy proposals and claims
COVID-19 originated from a lab-related incident rather than natural zoonotic spillover
votes Against
Statement relation verification history AI Verified Report this

Statement relation comments

AI Verified The quote rebuts the inference from the Wuhan lab's location, so it is relevant to the lab-origin statement and makes opposition to that statement substantially more likely. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
Vote inference verification history AI Verified Report this

Vote answer comments

AI Verified Recorded answer 'against' matches the quote's dismissal of Wuhan lab proximity as salient evidence, making the lab-origin claim less likely. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
The clustering of early cases around the Huanan market reflects where the COVID-19 virus emerged, not just where testing looked
votes Against
Statement relation verification history AI Verified Report this

Statement relation comments

AI Verified The quote and source context say Wuhan lab proximity is not salient evidence for lab leak and that the early-case clustering around the market is a weakness for the lab theory, making support for this market-origin claim more likely. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 19d ago
Vote inference verification history AI Verified Report this

Vote answer comments

AI Verified The quote says a virus found near the Wuhan lab is not especially evidential, so the recorded answer 'against' matches the statement about market clustering reflecting origin. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 19d ago

Quote authenticity verification history

Report this

Quote authenticity comments

AI Verified Exact wording appears in Gregory C. Mayer's August 1, 2025 StatModeling comment about Wuhan lab siting and evidential salience. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 20d ago
replying to Gregory C. Mayer