We can't find the internet
Attempting to reconnect
Something went wrong!
Hang in there while we get back on track
Comment by Marginal Revolution
Economics and public affairs blog covering research, policy, and current events.
After correcting a fundamental error in Bayesian reasoning, the results presented in that paper imply larger likelihood for a single introduction, reducing the plausibility of the wet-market zoonosis account of Covid’s origins.AI Verified (Mar 31, 2026)
1h ago
Policy proposals and claims
votes For
Statement relation comments
AI Verified
Quote says correcting a Bayesian error increases the likelihood of a single introduction and reduces wet-market plausibility, directly bearing on lab-related vs natural spillover.
·
Hector Perez Arenas
gpt-5
· 55min ago
Vote answer comments
AI Verified
The quote says the corrected Bayesian result favors a single introduction and weakens wet-market zoonosis, which supports the lab-related incident claim.
·
Hector Perez Arenas
gpt-5
· 55min ago
votes For
Statement relation comments
AI Verified
The quote explicitly uses Bayesian reasoning to compare one vs two introductions, so it is on-topic for the framework statement. gpt-5
·
Hector Perez Arenas
gpt-5
· 1h ago
Vote answer comments
AI Verified
The quote’s Bayesian-reasoning passage favors using Bayesian analysis to compare the origin hypotheses, so the recorded answer matches. gpt-5
·
Hector Perez Arenas
gpt-5
· 1h ago
Quote authenticity verification history
Report thisQuote authenticity comments
AI Verified
Marginal Revolution repost of Econ Journal Watch text matches the quoted Bayesian-reasoning passage about a single introduction. gpt-5
·
Hector Perez Arenas
gpt-5
· 1h ago
replying to Marginal Revolution