Comment by Richard Ngo

I’ve been working with the AI Futures Project to critique and improve their AI 2040 scenario. Ultimately I still have serious disagreements with it. However, to their credit, the team asked me to write up my criticisms to be shared alongside the scen...

In my post “Why I’m not a Bayesian”, I argued that the Bayesian approach of assigning credences to propositions with binary truth values only works in simple and restricted domains. Instead, I claimed, a better approach to epistemology is to assign d...