Comment by Geoffrey Hinton

The development of AI at present is a big race between companies within the U.S. and between the U.S. and China, and that race is gonna lead to superintelligence quite soon. [...] When AI gets smarter than us, it won’t be us that’s making AI smarter; it’ll be that smart AI that’s making AI smarter. And there’s a kind of takeoff phenomenon, when it grows exponentially. And the question is, Is it a fast exponential or a slow exponential? It might be that, a week after it becomes smarter than us, it’s made one that’s quite a bit smarter than it, and a week later there’s one quite a bit smarter than that. And so over a period of a year, it gets incredibly smart. [...] I think it’s when recursive self-improvement takes off and all of a sudden it gets very much smarter very quickly.