Ban predictive policing

ethics policy law surveillance data-privacy privacy ai-governance ai-regulation

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Key insights

Supporters of a ban usually describe predictive policing as profiling people or whole communities as future criminals, while opponents usually describe it as threat anticipation, early warning, or strategic deployment.
A central fault line is whether the harms are inherent: several pro-ban quotes say bias cannot be fixed by technical tweaks or human final decisions, whereas governance-based opponents say outcomes depend on safeguards.
Even some voices opposing a ban still call for strict statutory limits, specialist access, and human oversight, rather than defending unrestricted use.
In the provided quotes, rights and civil-liberties groups emphasize discrimination, privacy, and presumed innocence, while policing institutions and technology-policy voices emphasize effectiveness, modernization, and public safety.
Several supporters of a ban place predictive policing alongside facial recognition, biometric surveillance, crowd monitoring, and other automated law-enforcement tools, treating it as part of a broader surveillance debate.

Arguments for

Structural bias

Supporters of a ban argue that predictive policing relies on historical police and social data shaped by structural injustice and over-policing. They say this causes Black people, migrant people, poor people, and other marginalized groups or areas to be flagged as risky, reproducing and intensifying existing inequalities.

It is impossible to design an objective or neutral risk profiling algorithm. Data about people is never objective. When governments use past social data to predict who is going to commit a crime such as fraud, they inevitably target individuals who belong to historically oppresse…

Alexander Laufer · Jun 10, 2026 · full quote
bias and stereotypes at scale. Black people, migrant people, poor people, people from geographic areas which have been historically over policed are more likely to be identified as at risk of committing a crime. [...] Predictive policing is a dangerous thing that has no place in …

Mariano delli Santi · Mar 17, 2026 · full quote
It is crucial to acknowledge that elements of structural injustice are intensified by AI systems and we must therefore ban the use of predictive systems in law enforcement and criminal justice once and for all. Any AI or automated systems that are deployed by law enforcement and …

Birgit Sippel · 2023 · full quote
"The use of these sorts of predictive policing algorithms creates a postcode lottery of justice, reinforcing existing biases and inequalities. Infusing those systems with AI will only exacerbate the injustice," he warned.

David Davis · Jan 20, 2026 · full quote
Many AI systems have been proven to magnify discrimination and inequality. In particular, so-called ‘predictive policing’ and biometric surveillance systems are disproportionately used to target marginalised groups including racialised, working class and migrant communities. Thes…

Open Rights Group · Jul 26, 2024 · full quote

Presumption of innocence

Proponents say predictive policing profiles people and communities as criminal before alleged crimes have occurred and seeks to predict future behaviour for punishment or intervention. In their view, this is incompatible with the right to be presumed innocent and treats whole communities as potential suspects.

Age-old discrimination is being hard-wired into new age technologies in the form of predictive and profiling AI systems used by law enforcement and criminal justice authorities. Seeking to predict people’s future behaviour and punish them for it is completely incompatible with th…

Griff Ferris · 2022 · full quote
Today, Fair Trials has launched an interactive online tool designed to show how the police and other criminal justice authorities are using predictive systems to profile people and areas as criminal, even before alleged crimes have occurred. Our research has shown that more and …

Fair Trials · Jan 30, 2023 · full quote
These tools to “predict crime” harm us all by treating entire communities as potential criminals, making society more racist and unfair. Governments across the UK must prohibit the use of these technologies. Right now, they can demand transparency on how these systems are being u…

Amnesty International UK · Aug 25, 2025 · full quote
Many AI systems have been proven to magnify discrimination and inequality. In particular, so-called ‘predictive policing’ and biometric surveillance systems are disproportionately used to target marginalised groups including racialised, working class and migrant communities. Thes…

Open Rights Group · Jul 26, 2024 · full quote

Unproven effectiveness

Advocates for banning say there is a lack of evidence that predictive policing works, while some systems have contributed to conflict with communities or to arrests that should not have happened. They argue that such tools should not be used when "math cannot predict crime" and when they have not been peer reviewed and scientifically proven.

Predictive policing programs utilize algorithms to allocate law enforcement resources to areas and persons identified as having a higher risk for crime, despite a lack of evidence showing the efficacy of these determinations. Commercially-produced and in-house predictive policing…

Madison Cutler · 2024 · full quote
These are things we are seeing -- a trend across the country that the technology is not up to speed enough and people are getting arrested that should not be. [...] You use crime data and you use mathematics to basically say where to put police. It's not fair and because you wan…

Corey O’Connor · 2020 · full quote
Predictive policing has been shown over time to put officers in conflict with communities rather than working with the communities. [...] "until such time that it can be peer reviewed and scientifically proven."

Andy Mills · 2020 · full quote

Inherent high-stakes risk

Several supporters contend that predictive policing should be prohibited in high-stakes law-enforcement contexts because technical de-biasing, transparency, or human sign-off do not solve the underlying problem. In this view, behavioural prediction based on past data is inherently unsafe for rights, so only a ban provides adequate protection.

Risk profiling in migration, social security fraud detection and crime control must be banned. Predictive profiling and risk assessment systems, whether data driven or rules-based, should be banned in high stakes contexts even when humans make the final decisions.

Amnesty International · Jun 10, 2026 · full quote
I can’t profess to have researched every particular high-risk use in detail, but many of them should be banned. Predictive policing is a really good example. Many people believe that if you de-bias predictive policing systems, they will no longer profile and lead to the over-poli…

Sarah Chander · 2021 · full quote
It is impossible to design an objective or neutral risk profiling algorithm. Data about people is never objective. When governments use past social data to predict who is going to commit a crime such as fraud, they inevitably target individuals who belong to historically oppresse…

Alexander Laufer · Jun 10, 2026 · full quote
AI systems used by law enforcement often have technological or commercial barriers that prevent effective and meaningful scrutiny, transparency, and accountability. It is crucial that individuals affected by these systems’ decisions are aware of their use and have clear and effec…

AlgorithmWatch · 2022 · full quote
No Artificial Intelligence system shall be deployed for policing, crime prediction, crowd monitoring, or automated enforcement of public order laws including traffic violations without prior approval from the Bureau. [...] AI tools for facial recognition, license plate reading, r…

Ma. Nina Francesca P. Lacson · Feb 4, 2026 · full quote

Arguments against

Earlier threat detection

Opponents of a ban argue that AI, digital forensics, geospatial intelligence, and predictive tools can strengthen situational awareness, improve early warning and threat assessment, and help anticipate threats during investigations. They present predictive analysis as a way to support evidence-based decision-making rather than only react after harm occurs.

Artificial intelligence, digital forensics, and geospatial intelligence are transforming how we anticipate threats and conduct investigations.

Nigeria Police Force · Jul 8, 2026 · full quote
With artificial intelligence, digital technology, and the use of predictive tools, this can strengthen situational awareness, support evidence-based decision-making, and improve early warning and threat assessment.

Government of Solomon Islands · Jul 8, 2026 · full quote
That is why we believe that this summit is a strategic step allowing us to redefine the role of UN Police and strengthen its ability to respond to the ever-rapid changes by implementing a modern police system based on institutional complementarity, investing in technology, recour…

Jordan Public Security Directorate · Jul 8, 2026 · full quote
Predictive policing shows how crime analytics can already help forces move from reactive response to earlier intervention, using existing data within governed environments.

Ben Jarvis · Mar 9, 2026 · full quote

Strategic innovation for safety

Another case against a ban is that predictive policing is meant to make police work more strategic, efficient, and effective, helping forces make better use of technology in the fight against crime and in protecting public safety. On this view, the opportunities of innovation should receive as much attention as its risks.

Predictive policing falls into that same category. The goal isn’t to replace police work, it’s to make it more strategic.

Naveen Joshi · Jun 28, 2026 · full quote
There is a lot of concern about AI but the truth is it is here, and it’s here to stay. AI can, if used correctly, be a force for good that will help policing become not just more efficient but far more effective. That means greater safety and security for us all.

Neil Basu · Jun 10, 2026 · full quote
This is a welcome step to help police make better use of technology in the fight against crime. For too long, some of the loudest voices have focused on the risks of innovation without giving equal attention to the opportunities it offers to protect the public.

Ryan Wain · Jun 10, 2026 · full quote
We have a number of predictive-policing initiatives underway [...] It is 21st-century policing – it’s great.

William J. Bratton · 2016 · full quote

Middle ground

Limited use with safeguards

Some voices do not support an outright ban, arguing that potentially beneficial uses may exist but should be tightly limited by statute, specialist access rules, and vigilant human oversight. They say person-based forecasts should not justify detaining individuals and that the technology's acceptability depends on governance rather than a total prohibition.

This article will argue that the use of predictive policing algorithms at the border should not be barred outright, as the government should permit potentially beneficial uses of the technology to develop. However, use of these algorithms should be carefully limited by statute to…

Lindsey Barrett · 2017 · full quote
That’s not to say that police departments shouldn’t use software to analyze their data. [...] Further development of the technology is inevitable, so local governments and police departments should develop appropriate standards and practices. [...] Person-based algorithmic foreca…

David O’Connor · 2017 · full quote
Ultimately, whether AI technology improves policing outcomes depends on the governance surrounding it. Ensuring there is a vigilant human in every AI loop should be a non-negotiable safeguard.

Stan Karanasios · Mar 3, 2026 · full quote

Supporters of a ban argue that predictive policing rests on biased historical data, criminalizes people before crimes occur, and cannot be made acceptable through better design or human review. Opponents focus on its value for anticipation, situational awareness, and more strategic policing, while some nuanced voices argue for tightly limited, human-governed use instead of an outright ban. The debate centers on whether predictive uses in law enforcement are fundamentally incompatible with rights and equality or can be confined within effective safeguards.

Cast your vote:

Results (42 votes):

Total (42 votes)

For 29 (69%) Abstain 0 (0%) Against 13 (31%)

For (27)

European Commission
EU's executive body

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votes For and says:

All AI systems considered a clear threat to the safety, livelihoods and rights of people are banned. The AI Act prohibits individual criminal offence risk assessment or prediction.
AI Verified source (Aug 3, 2026)

added 22d ago

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Delegate
Council of the European Union
EU Council of governments

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votes For and says:

AI systems that pose a threat to people’s safety, rights or livelihoods are banned from use in the EU. These include cognitive behavioural manipulation, predictive policing, emotion recognition in the workplace and educational institutions, and socia...
more AI Verified source (Jun 29, 2026)

added 24d ago

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Delegate
Béatrice Fresko-Rolfo
Member of Monaco’s National Council and delegate to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.

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votes For and says:

In the wrong hands, [AI] becomes a tool for mass surveillance, predictive policing, risk rating, social scoring, and even the censorship of political opinions. AI, however, does not confine itself to merely watching; it is therefore up to us to set l...
more AI Verified source (Jun 24, 2026)

added 24d ago

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Delegate
Alexander Laufer
Technology and human-rights researcher at Amnesty International Netherlands.

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votes For and says:

It is impossible to design an objective or neutral risk profiling algorithm. Data about people is never objective. When governments use past social data to predict who is going to commit a crime such as fraud, they inevitably target individuals who b...
more AI Verified source (Jun 10, 2026)

added 1mo ago

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Amnesty International
Human rights NGO

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votes For and says:

Risk profiling in migration, social security fraud detection and crime control must be banned. Predictive profiling and risk assessment systems, whether data driven or rules-based, should be banned in high stakes contexts even when humans make the fi...
more AI Verified source (Jun 10, 2026)

added 2mo ago

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Delegate
Baroness Uddin
Independent member of the UK House of Lords; co-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Digital Identity.

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votes For and says:

Indeed, AI profiling of Black and Asian men in the criminal justice system continues to replicate centuries-old bias.
AI Verified source (Jun 5, 2026)

added 18d ago

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Delegate
Mariano delli Santi
Legal and Policy Officer at Open Rights Group

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votes For and says:

bias and stereotypes at scale. Black people, migrant people, poor people, people from geographic areas which have been historically over policed are more likely to be identified as at risk of committing a crime. [...] Predictive policing is a dangero...
more AI Verified source (Mar 17, 2026)

added 5mo ago

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Delegate
David Davis
UK Conservative Member of Parliament

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votes For and says:

"The use of these sorts of predictive policing algorithms creates a postcode lottery of justice, reinforcing existing biases and inequalities. Infusing those systems with AI will only exacerbate the injustice," he warned.
AI Verified source (Jan 20, 2026)

added 4mo ago

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Amnesty International UK
Human rights organization

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votes For and says:

These tools to “predict crime” harm us all by treating entire communities as potential criminals, making society more racist and unfair. Governments across the UK must prohibit the use of these technologies. Right now, they can demand transparency on...
more AI Verified source (Aug 25, 2025)

added 10mo ago

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Delegate
ARTICLE 19
Free expression and human rights organisation

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votes For and says:

Notwithstanding the limited reach of the ban on predictive policing — which excludes event and location-based predictions — the guidelines must clarify that predicting ‘risk of committing a criminal offence’ includes all systems that purport to predi...
more AI Verified source (Jan 16, 2025)

added 10mo ago

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Open Rights Group
Digital rights advocacy group

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votes For and says:

Many AI systems have been proven to magnify discrimination and inequality. In particular, so-called ‘predictive policing’ and biometric surveillance systems are disproportionately used to target marginalised groups including racialised, working class...
more AI Verified source (Jul 26, 2024)

1 added 2y ago

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Delegate
Madison Cutler
Policy brief author, Ford School

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votes For and says:

Predictive policing programs utilize algorithms to allocate law enforcement resources to areas and persons identified as having a higher risk for crime, despite a lack of evidence showing the efficacy of these determinations. Commercially-produced an...
more AI Verified source (2024)

added 10mo ago

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Delegate
Fair Trials
Global criminal justice watchdog

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votes For and says:

Today, Fair Trials has launched an interactive online tool designed to show how the police and other criminal justice authorities are using predictive systems to profile people and areas as criminal, even before alleged crimes have occurred. Our res...
more AI Verified source (Jan 30, 2023)

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Delegate
Dragoș Tudorache
MEP; EU AI Act co-rapporteur

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votes For and says:

We don't want mass surveillance, we don't want social scoring, we don't want predictive policing in the European Union, full stop.
AI Verified source (2023)

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Birgit Sippel
German MEP, civil liberties advocate

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votes For and says:

It is crucial to acknowledge that elements of structural injustice are intensified by AI systems and we must therefore ban the use of predictive systems in law enforcement and criminal justice once and for all. Any AI or automated systems that are de...
more AI Verified source (2023)

added 10mo ago

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Delegate
Griff Ferris
Fair Trials legal and policy officer

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votes For and says:

Age-old discrimination is being hard-wired into new age technologies in the form of predictive and profiling AI systems used by law enforcement and criminal justice authorities. Seeking to predict people’s future behaviour and punish them for it is c...
more AI Verified source (2022)

added 10mo ago

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AlgorithmWatch
Algorithmic accountability nonprofit

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votes For and says:

AI systems used by law enforcement often have technological or commercial barriers that prevent effective and meaningful scrutiny, transparency, and accountability. It is crucial that individuals affected by these systems’ decisions are aware of thei...
more AI Verified source (2022)

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Delegate
Sameena Usman
CAIR-SFBA government relations coordinator

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votes For and says:

We thank the Oakland City Council for their unanimous vote to protect our dignity and privacy through banning predictive policing and biometric surveillance technology.
AI Verified source (Jan 14, 2021)

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Delegate
Sarah Chander
Digital rights policy adviser

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votes For and says:

I can’t profess to have researched every particular high-risk use in detail, but many of them should be banned. Predictive policing is a really good example. Many people believe that if you de-bias predictive policing systems, they will no longer pro...
more AI Verified source (2021)

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Delegate
The People’s Plan NYC
NYC multi‑group policy platform

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votes For and says:

Problem: Predictive policing is software that is sold to the public as a way for police to “predict crime.” In practice, this software automates racial profiling, harvesting data from sources like the gang databases, which is 99 percent Black and Lat...
more AI Verified source (2021)

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Abstain (0)

Against (13)

Nigeria Police Force
National police service of Nigeria, represented by its inspector general at the 2026 UN Chiefs of Police Summit.

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votes Against and says:

Artificial intelligence, digital forensics, and geospatial intelligence are transforming how we anticipate threats and conduct investigations.
AI Verified source (Jul 8, 2026)

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Jordan Public Security Directorate
Jordan's national public-security authority, represented by its director at the 2026 UN Chiefs of Police Summit.

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votes Against and says:

That is why we believe that this summit is a strategic step allowing us to redefine the role of UN Police and strengthen its ability to respond to the ever-rapid changes by implementing a modern police system based on institutional complementarity, i...
more AI Verified source (Jul 8, 2026)

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Government of Solomon Islands
National government of Solomon Islands, represented by its deputy police commissioner at the 2026 UN Chiefs of Police Summit.

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votes Against and says:

With artificial intelligence, digital technology, and the use of predictive tools, this can strengthen situational awareness, support evidence-based decision-making, and improve early warning and threat assessment.
AI Verified source (Jul 8, 2026)

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Naveen Joshi
Founder and CEO of Allerin, writing on artificial intelligence, analytics, and responsible technology.

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votes Against and says:

Predictive policing falls into that same category. The goal isn’t to replace police work, it’s to make it more strategic.
AI Verified source (Jun 28, 2026)

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Government of the United Kingdom
United Kingdom central government

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votes Against and says:

Officers across England and Wales will spend less time behind desks and more time protecting their communities, as the government today launches PoliceAI – a new national centre dedicated to the responsible development, piloting and scaling of artifi...
more AI Verified source (Jun 10, 2026)

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Sarah Jones
UK Crime and Policing Minister and Member of Parliament.

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votes Against and says:

AI is already helping police catch dangerous offenders, speed up investigations and keep our communities safe – and we are only just getting started.
AI Verified source (Jun 10, 2026)

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Neil Basu
Former head of Counter Terrorism Policing in the United Kingdom.

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votes Against and says:

There is a lot of concern about AI but the truth is it is here, and it’s here to stay. AI can, if used correctly, be a force for good that will help policing become not just more efficient but far more effective. That means greater safety and securit...
more AI Verified source (Jun 10, 2026)

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Ryan Wain
Senior Director of Policy & Politics at the Tony Blair Institute, commenting on technology and public policy.

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votes Against and says:

This is a welcome step to help police make better use of technology in the fight against crime. For too long, some of the loudest voices have focused on the risks of innovation without giving equal attention to the opportunities it offers to protect ...
more AI Verified source (Jun 10, 2026)

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Ben Jarvis
Chief Technology Officer for Data & AI at Telefónica Tech, writing on governed AI use in policing.

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votes Against and says:

Predictive policing shows how crime analytics can already help forces move from reactive response to earlier intervention, using existing data within governed environments.
AI Verified source (Mar 9, 2026)

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Stan Karanasios
Professor in Information Systems at the University of Queensland, researching AI use in policing.

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votes Against and says:

Ultimately, whether AI technology improves policing outcomes depends on the governance surrounding it. Ensuring there is a vigilant human in every AI loop should be a non-negotiable safeguard.
AI Verified source (Mar 3, 2026)

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More h/ai-governance votes

Ban governments from using AI to conduct mass surveillance of citizens

Ban the use of AI for mass surveillance

Grant individuals the right to opt out of being included in AI training data

Ban AI impersonation of real individuals without their consent

Use sortition (random selection of citizens) to staff AI oversight boards

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