Tommaso Costa

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StatModeling commenter comparing market-origin and lab-origin likelihoods

Speaks on: Covid 19 Origins Disinformation Health Public Health Research Policy

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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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Using a log-normal model to allow for a fourfold uncertainty in early counts, the data are about 10 times more likely under the market-origin scenario than the lab-origin scenario. My calculation was a deliberately simple likelihood comparison: given...
more AI Verified source (Aug 13, 2025)

added 2h ago